EURUSD Trading for July 14, 2020

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EUR/USD прогноз Евро Доллар на 14 февраля 2020

Валютная пара Евро Доллар EUR/USD продолжает движение в рамках падения и нисходящего канала. Скользящие средние указывают на наличие краткосрочной медвежьей тенденции по паре. Цены ушли далеко от области между сигнальным линиями, что указывает на сильное давление со стороны продавцов европейской валюты. В момент публикации прогноза курс Евро к Доллару США составляет 1.0840. В рамках Форекс прогноза стоит ожидать попытку развития коррекции и тест уровня сопротивления вблизи области 1.0885. Далее, отскок и продолжение падения валютной пары Евро Доллар. Потенциальной целью такого движения выступает область ниже уровня 1.0735.

EUR/USD прогноз Евро Доллар на 14 февраля 2020

Дополнительным сигналом в пользу падения котировок EUR/USD выступит тест линии сопротивления на индикаторе относительной силы (RSI). Вторым сигналом станет отскок от верхней границы нисходящего канала. Отменой варианта снижения котировок валютной пары Евро Доллар станет сильный рост и пробой уровня 1.0935. Это укажет на пробой области сопротивления и продолжение роста в область на уровне 1.1075. Ожидать ускорения падения по паре EUR/USD стоит с пробоем области поддержки и закрытием ниже уровня 1.0805.

Среди важных новостей из Европы и Америки, которые могут оказать влияние на курс пары EUR/USD, стоит выделить: Валовой внутренний продукт (ВВП) Германии кв/кв (Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q), Изменение занятости в Европейском Союзе кв/кв (European Union Employment Change q/q), Валовой внутренний продукт (ВВП) в Европейском Союзе кв/кв (European Union Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q), Розничные продажи в США м/м (United States Retail Sales m/m).

Таким образом, EUR/USD прогноз Евро Доллар на 14 февраля 2020 предполагает развитие коррекции и тест области сопротивления вблизи уровня 1.0885. Откуда стоит ожидать отскок и попытку продолжения падения пары в область ниже уровня 1.0735. В пользу снижения валютной пары выступит тест линии тренда на индикаторе относительной силы. Отменой варианта падения EUR/USD станет сильный рост и пробой уровня 1.0935. Это укажет на пробой сопротивления и продолжение роста пары в область выше уровня 1.1075.

EUR/USD Trading for July 14, 2020

Пара EUR/USD в ходе планомерного восстановления в торговом коридоре 1.1109–1.1173 достигла промежуточной цели — локального зеркального уровня 1.1143. Дальнейшая динамика пары, пробой уровня 1.1173 или движение в диапазоне 1.1109–1.1143, будет зависеть от волатильности доллара США.

Основной новостью дня будет публикация статистики по инфляции в США в 16:30 МСК. Согласно прогнозу, индекс потребительских цен в исчислении от месяца к месяцу составит 0,2 % против 0,3 % в прошлом периоде. Базовый месячный индекс потребительских цен останется неизменным — 0,2 %.

Отклонение фактических уровней инфляции от прогноза, вероятно, приведет к повышению волатильности американской валюты.

При сильных значениях и росте доллара EUR/USD окажется под давлением и может торговаться в коридоре 1.1109–1.1143, тогда как более слабые значения могут способствовать пробою и закреплению над уровнем 1.1143 и восстановлению дальше к 1.1173. Стоит помнить, что доллар США сохраняет чувствительность к геополитике.

Среднесрочный рынок, таймфрейм Н1

На часовом графике EUR/USD пока отскакивает вниз от локального уровня сопротивления 1.1143. Сегодня цена, вероятно, определится с положением относительно него, а котировки либо продолжат рост, либо закрепятся в боковике 1.1109–1.1143.

Данная аналитика не является прямой рекомендацией к торгам. Анализ носит чисто информативный характер.

Forex Analysis: 7 Apr 2020, 16:27 UTC+00

April 7, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Recently, the GBPUSD has reached new LOW price levels around 1.1450, slightly below the historical low (1.1650) achieved in September 2020.

That’s when the GBP/USD pair looked very OVERSOLD around the price levels of 1.1450 where a double-bottom reversal pattern was recently demonstrated.

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Technical outlook will probably remain bullish if bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1890-1.1900 (Double-Bottom Neckline) on the H4 Charts.

Bullish breakout above 1.1900 (Latest Descending High) invalidated the bearish scenario temporarily & enabled a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.2260.

Next bullish targets around 1.2520 and 1.2680 were expected to be addressed if sufficient bullish momentum was maintained.

However, early bearish pressure signs have originated around 1.2470 leading to another bearish decline towards 1.2265.

That’s why, H4 Candlestick re-closure below 1.2265 is needed to hinder further bullish advancement and enhance the bearish momentum on the short term.

If so, Initial Bearish target would be located around 1.1900 provided that quick H4 bearish closure below 1.2265 is achieved.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.2265 would probably enhance another bullish pullback movement up to the price level of 1.2470.

Conservative traders should be waiting either for another bullish pullback towards 1.2350 or another H4 bearish closure below 1.2265 as a valid SELL signal.

T/P level to be located around 1.2100 and 1.2000 while S/L should remain above 1.2450.

Performed by
analytical expert: Mohamed Samy InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

Published: 7 Apr 2020, 16:27 UTC+00

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Monday, 06 April 2020

The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is an accurate monthly measure of retail sales performance that acts as both a benchmark for participating retailers and as a key economic indicator.

The RSM measures changes in the actual value of retail sales based on figures supplied directly by participating members. Originally set up at the request of BRC members to benchmark their own business performance against the wider sector, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor is an authoritative measure on the health of the UK retail sector and the wider economy.

Time Country Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
23:01 Average Cash Earnings Feb 1.2% 0.2% 1.0%

The average amount of pre-tax earnings per regular employee, including overtime pay and bonuses.

Household Spending Feb -3.9% -3.3% -0.3%

A survey of both wage-earning and non-working households, such as those classified as single-member, unemployed, or retired. The headline figure is the percentage change in average spending per household from the previous year. Increases in household spending are favorable for the Japanese economy because high consumer spending generally leads to higher levels of economic growth. Higher spending is also a sign of consumer optimism, as households confident in their future outlook will spend more. At the same time accelerated growth exerts inflationary pressure, which can lead to interest rate increases in the future.

Tuesday, 07 April 2020

Time Country Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:30 ANZ Jobs Advertisements Mar 1.2% -10.3%

The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month.

Trade Balance Feb 4.75bln 3.75bln 4.36bln

A country’s trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country’s currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI – where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure’s components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period, not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends on Forex, the release has historically been one of the more important reports in any country.

The RBNZ is issued regarding the recent decision on interest rates and is required to include all details on how the bank will achieve its inflation targets and how it intends on achieving its recent monetary policy decisions.

30-Year JGB Auction Apr 0.335%; 3.65 0.426%; 3.53

Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors’ outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

RBA Interest Rate Decision Apr 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

The Reserve Bank sets the target ‘cash rate’, which is the market interest rate on overnight funds. It uses this as the instrument for monetary policy, and influences the cash rate through its financial market operations. Decisions regarding the cash rate target are made by the Reserve Bank Board and explained in a media release announcing the decision at 2.30 pm after each Board meeting.

The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negatvie (or bearish).

Leading Indicators Feb 90.5 92.0 92.1

This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There’s a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it’s not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008. Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

Unemployment Rate Mar 2.6%; 2.5% 2.7%; 2.6% 2.8%; 2.9%

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

High unemployment translates into lower average wages and reduced consumer spending. As consumer spending is the majority of total expenditure, rising unemployment often leads to slow economic growth. In addition, high or rising unemployment puts downward pressure on interest rates and leads to a depreciating Franc.

Industrial Production Feb 3.2% m/m; -0.9% y/y -0.7% m/m; -3.0% y/y 0.3% m/m; -1.2% y/y

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Germany. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of German industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Euro. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

Trade Balance Feb -6.0bln -5.1bln -5.2bln

A country’s trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country’s currency.

Foreign Currency Reserves Mar 768.8bln 765.6bln

This is the amount of foreign currency reserves that are held by the Central Bank of a country. In general use, foreign currency reserves also include gold and IMF reserves. Also, people may take into account liquid assets that can easily be converted into foreign currency.

Halifax House Price Index Mar 0.2% m/m; 2.8% y/y 0.2% m/m; 3.3% y/y 0.0% m/m; 3.0% y/y

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted. The Halifax House Price Index is the UK’s longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983.

Retail Sales Feb 0.1% m/m; 1.5% y/y -0.4% m/m; 0.2% y/y 0.8% m/m; 5.7% y/y

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

NFIB Small Business Index Mar 104.5 96.4

Survey of small businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including labor markets, inventories and sales, capital spending, inflation, earnings and wages, and credit markets.

JOLTs Job Openings Feb 7012K 6550K 6882K

A survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month. Respondents to the survey answer quantitative and qualitative questions about their businesses’ employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. The JOLTS data is published monthly and by region and industry.

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Mar 54.1; 53.2 50.1 26.0; 28.2

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an economic index which measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada, and is prepared by the Richard Ivey School of Business. The PMI is provided in two formats: unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. It shows responses to one question: “”Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?”” A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is often referred to as the Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI and is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC). The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Apr 53.9 49.1 47.8

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index measures Americans’ opinions and outlooks on the economy. The index is based on a nationwide survey of 900 adults and evaluates six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, confidence in federal economic policies. Reading above 50 indicates optimism, and below 50 indicates pessimism. This page provides the latest reported value for – United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on September of 2020.

The GDT Price Index uses a weighted-average of the percentage changes in prices. GDT Price Indices are used to avoid the bias of a simple weighted average price, and to give a more accurate reflection of the price movements between trading events. GDT provides price indices at various levels of aggregation, ranging from indices at the individual product group/contract level through to the GDT Price Index at the highest level of aggregation. The GDT Price Index measures the movement of prices for all products sold on GDT, whereas the individual product indices describe the movement in prices for a specific product.

10-y Bond Auction Apr 0.849%; 2.36 0.782%; 2.43

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Consumer Credit Feb 12.0bln 13.9bln

Measures the outstanding debt held by consumers. Consumer Credit levels coincide with the economy, rising during economic expansion and dropping during a recession. Growth in Consumer Credit means that consumers have higher spending ability, which can fuel economic growth. However, too much Consumer Debt can result in an economic slowdown in the long term if consumers become overburdened with debt, then either reducing consumption or passing debt on to the financers after bankruptcy. The headline value is the outstanding debt held by consumers.

Core Machinery Orders Feb 2.9% m/m; -0.3% y/y -2.9% m/m; -3.0% y/y

Japan machinery orders received from the private sector excluding volatile orders.

Current Account Feb 1626.8bln; 612.3bln 2021.5bln; 3067.2bln

Wednesday, 08 April 2020

Time Country Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:30 Westpac Consumer Sentiment Apr 91.9; -3.8%

Consumer Sentiment (or Consumer Confidence) measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion.

Economy Watchers Survey Mar 27.4; 24.6 22.2; 19.0

The Economy Watchers Survey asks business-cycle sensitive workers their thoughts on existing and future economic conditions, giving a detailed picture of economic trends in Japan . The survey is based on questionnaires from ‘man on the street’ sectors that are particularly vulnerable to business cycle turns. These segments of the economy include sectors such as retail, restaurant service and taxi driving. With this combined data the Japanese Eco Watchers report serves as both a consumer confidence indicator and a leading indicator for the rest of the economy. The report is usually released less than two weeks after the reporting month, thus its statistics are usually very timely. The headline number is released where 50 represents the center midpoint line of boom/bust sentiment.

10-y Bond Auction Apr -0.77%; 1.0

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

10-y Bond Auction Apr 0.307%; 2.23

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

10-y Bond Auction Apr 0.307%; 2.23

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Housing Starts Mar 210.069K 170.0K

Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada’s construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts’ sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

Crude Oil Inventories Apr 13833K

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Crude Oil Inventories Apr 13833K

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

30-y Bond Auction Apr 1.320%; 2.36

Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors’ outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a verbatim record of the committee’s meeting held about two weeks earlier.

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